TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,450 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over80c944.64$754 inWon+$190.7712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under20c599.98$120 inLost-$1202,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over79c506.46$400 inWon+$106.4632266.5%214 W · 108 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under20c499.99$100 inLost-$1009,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under21c404.4$85 inLost-$84.9211,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under22c100.08$22 inLost-$22.023,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over79c92.09$72 inWon+$19.6750962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd764…ae83backed Under22c80.26$18 inLost-$17.663450%17 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over79c66.84$53 inWon+$14.0439653.5%212 W · 184 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under21c50$11 inLost-$10.682741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over78c49.54$39 inWon+$10.84,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over78c40.71$32 inWon+$98,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb258…0d2bbacked Over80c25$20 inWon+$5850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over80c24.03$19 inWon+$4.811,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over78c19.39$15 inWon+$4.261,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over80c16.35$13 inWon+$3.271,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc57…d8b5backed Over80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.