MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5a220b2dac940e56a63ffd54b6b91ded336320dabe8c9a11f45bd264398e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 54c | 91,902$49,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,274.89 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 47,088$21,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,660.39 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 46c | 22,997$10,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,578.67 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 46c | 10,248$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.08 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 54c | 8,933$4,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.55 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 7,339$3,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,352.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 5,317$2,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 47c | 2,262$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.32 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 2,083$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 1c | 1,941$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,501$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,393$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,065$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.55 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.72 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 46c | 982.48$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.85 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 703$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.28 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 46c | 673.43$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.78 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Over | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Over | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 46c | 617$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 492.61$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 67c | 422$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 303.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 291$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 270$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 54c | 260.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…60b5backed Over | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 209.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 46c | 187.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 129.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 46c | 120.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 56c | 108.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 35c | 89.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Under | 47c | 87.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 82.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 53c | 74.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 46c | 74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 46c | 55.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 47.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 45.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfee…67b9backed Under | 48c | 35.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Under | 46c | 34.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…77b5backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…f34ebacked Under | 46c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 48c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.