MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2cf7dcf09871c48ff856f364d09c7284d992b638fe236760b213f81c61243c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 4,331$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.56 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 4,020$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.98 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 3,911$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.66 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 2,908$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 1,643$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.64 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 1,182$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 566.04$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 561.81$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 467.94$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 414.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 408.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 249.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 184.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 144.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 138.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 129.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 104.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 102.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 94.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 93.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 89.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 72.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 65.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 58.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 48.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 44.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 44.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 43.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 37.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 35.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 34.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…6cf3backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 33.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 31.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 29.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 27.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…5f7abacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.