TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,924 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs50c10,710$5,303 inWon+$5,407.210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c8,937$4,686 inLost-$4,685.756,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates41c1,220$500 inLost-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates72c1,200$864 inLost-$8645,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c1,002$376 inLost-$375.99,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs28c890.51$249 inWon+$641.173,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Pittsburgh Pirates23c652$150 inLost-$149.969837.8%37 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs49c612.23$300 inWon+$312.242,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chicago Cubs55c591$325 inWon+$265.951,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs64c376$242 inWon+$133.712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs39c208$82 inWon+$126.128,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates51c113.73$58 inLost-$581,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs28c107.38$30 inWon+$77.311,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates73c100$73 inLost-$737761%47 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Chicago Cubs27c100$27 inWon+$7344737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates51c97.41$50 inLost-$49.6833934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs26c55.3$14 inWon+$40.925,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Pittsburgh Pirates29c37.36$11 inLost-$10.8383053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates46c35.56$16 inLost-$16.3616761.7%103 W · 64 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Pittsburgh Pirates80c25$20 inLost-$2035149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates78c21.99$17 inLost-$17.151,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates73c18.78$14 inLost-$13.712,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.