TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,560 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates19c4,427$841 inLost-$841.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c3,229$1,163 inLost-$1,162.564,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Chicago Cubs64c2,312$1,479 inWon+$832.1528350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs64c1,184$758 inWon+$426.246,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Pittsburgh Pirates29c1,095$318 inLost-$317.531,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs71c1,059$752 inWon+$307.225,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c428.57$150 inLost-$15029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs65c301.57$196 inWon+$105.552,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs65c200.29$130 inWon+$70.612,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs78c120$94 inWon+$25.955,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Chicago Cubs70c113.02$79 inWon+$33.7210864.8%70 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates19c107.8$21 inLost-$20.769,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Pittsburgh Pirates25c100$25 inLost-$2544737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c88$32 inLost-$31.6846854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c88$32 inLost-$31.6872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs75c83.83$63 inWon+$20.7211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates24c60$14 inLost-$14.499624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates23c54.71$13 inLost-$12.6612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c50$18 inLost-$181,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates34c41.94$14 inLost-$14.268,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x850a…7dcbbacked Chicago Cubs68c36.16$25 inWon+$11.411172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs64c33.33$21 inWon+$123,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs73c25.68$19 inWon+$6.931,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Chicago Cubs72c25.68$18 inWon+$7.199851%50 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago Cubs77c14.1$11 inWon+$3.261,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.