MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc025f3916914ae055e07ef9a631d8f20c4afddaef1ddbda1e3f2b4d514cff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 56c | 6,125$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.9 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 3,401$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 50c | 2,634$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.59 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 1,937$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,553$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 874.38$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 503.5$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 464.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 42c | 291.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 72c | 204$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 159.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 117.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 103.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 47c | 41.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 38.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 57c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.