TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs37c3,681$1,368 inWon+$2,313.3710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pittsburgh Pirates78c641.03$500 inLost-$5001,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c531.41$311 inLost-$311.436,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates27c473.4$127 inLost-$126.7712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs42c386.4$162 inWon+$224.112,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates72c342.81$246 inLost-$245.568,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c117.44$41 inLost-$40.851,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c100.26$58 inLost-$5844737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs35c100$35 inWon+$651,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c97.18$63 inLost-$63.171,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs45c61.73$28 inWon+$33.685,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs35c60$21 inWon+$391,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c60$38 inLost-$38.41,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates56c55.13$31 inLost-$31.1111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs43c54.39$23 inWon+$30.972,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Chicago Cubs32c43.45$14 inWon+$29.6612555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c40.27$25 inLost-$25.372,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c38.46$25 inLost-$24.8344744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c34.85$23 inLost-$22.8266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Pittsburgh Pirates74c26$19 inLost-$19.1816274.1%120 W · 42 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c24.57$12 inLost-$11.791,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c22.06$14 inLost-$14.311,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Pittsburgh Pirates66c16.54$11 inLost-$10.999752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c16.41$10 inLost-$10.0611346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.