TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c980.61$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.524,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes55c947.95$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.517945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes41c643$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.541,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No50c356.19$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c1…7edabacked No59c349.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.52669.2%18 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c255.35$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes40c246.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.541,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes40c227.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No58c212.82$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.268,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes40c201.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.361,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No61c194.62$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.771,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No51c187.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No41c160$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c152.02$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.434,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes44c152$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes39c150.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes40c145.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c145.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6618043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c144.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.372,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c122.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.249,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No36c117.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c115$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.52,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes63c110.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c108.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.625,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No56c107.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No37c107.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.671,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No54c106.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.881,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No56c104.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4056543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.545253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No34c99.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9920631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No47c92.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.229752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes43c87.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No34c80.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.033545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes66c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.519345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes40c73.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3140741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No54c73.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes35c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.215246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes35c67.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71d3…5710backed Yes51c63.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.363823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No37c62.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4713551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No60c59.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7812351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.051,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No39c55.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.241,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad80…eca5backed Yes47c53.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes34c52.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.689746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.099744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes35c51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8535137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.512747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes39c47.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c45.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c43.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.523,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3726458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x612a…bde5backed No59c40.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No49c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.541,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0419753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9642643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes44c34.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes32c34.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c33.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes39c33.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes45c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No57c32.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes42c29.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…eb2bbacked No58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2512544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No58c23.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No52c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5621451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c21.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.023,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa616…5368backed No58c20.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.561637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No62c19.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.451,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.