TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c579.42$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.318,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No57c554.25$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.761,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No2c480$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.831,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes32c449.96$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.597945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes50c396.32$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.61,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes40c280.09$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes45c260.57$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.71,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c242$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c226.12$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.068,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c215.04$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.082,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes63c201.69$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.894,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c198.18$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.513,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No65c196.81$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.682,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No50c194.62$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.871,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes23c186.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.281,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed Yes33c169.53$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.952548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c168.12$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.674,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c163.2$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.53,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c157.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes49c132.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.212142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c130.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No63c120.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.417,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes42c118.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.921,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x687b…a490backed Yes26c109.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c108.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c104.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes10c101.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c89.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes30c79.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.741,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19f…64ccbacked Yes41c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes36c73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.371,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes63c71.9$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.282,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No21c70.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.054,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No69c61.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes65c60.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes25c52.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes46c50.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7721651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2535344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2714043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No24c49.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes41c48.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.843545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes28c45.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6862137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No29c42.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.434,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No60c41.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.154547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes46c41.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3613551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes26c40.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6329219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes49c37.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.366150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes43c36.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4923538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c34.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.522,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes72c33.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c33.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.963,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes46c33.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.763,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes40c31.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7333350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes58c30.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.062,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cc…4e1bbacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152544%11 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c29.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x71d3…5710backed Yes59c29.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.793823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…eb2bbacked No69c28.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes49c25.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.239848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes40c25.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No77c25.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No77c25.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9512544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c21.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.433,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes75c21.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4611883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No74c20.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9757264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No76c20.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6557…8474backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…26aabacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No68c18.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.614161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No68c18.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.319053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c16.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.911,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No74c14.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.