College Football · resolved market
Spread: Fresno State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c19f0bda9eb37e168cf18518c2f657423fbda94c748bead9fb996485f666251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Stateof Fresno State, Colorado State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado State | 49c | 10,890$5,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,604.1 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Fresno State | 52c | 9,707$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colorado State | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Fresno State | 51c | 3,300$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Fresno State | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Fresno State | 49c | 2,135$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.16 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fresno State | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Colorado State | 51c | 1,086$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.14 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Colorado State | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Fresno State | 48c | 980$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.4 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006f…b3efbacked Fresno State | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Colorado State | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Colorado State | 50c | 730$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Colorado State | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Colorado State | 50c | 663$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Colorado State | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Fresno State | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Colorado State | 49c | 338.11$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Colorado State | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Fresno State | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Fresno State | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Fresno State | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colorado State | 49c | 144.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Colorado State | 49c | 102.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colorado State | 48c | 101.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fresno State | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Fresno State | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Colorado State | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fresno State (-6.5)this page
- Fresno State vs. Colorado StateColorado State won
- Fresno State vs. Colorado State: O/U 47.5Over won
- Fresno State vs. Colorado State: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.