MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4e56380577959cdb23ca13ae83ee189631a2346aa5bede4708a0cd2794bfc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 40c | 20,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,999.98 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 60c | 17,017$10,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,192.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.99 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 40c | 3,564$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.98 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 62c | 3,227$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 59c | 2,803$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 60c | 2,613$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked No | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 60c | 1,083$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 920.44$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.53 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 908.69$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.71 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 61c | 719.15$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked Yes | 41c | 707.56$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.46 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 40c | 706.32$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 590.56$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…9a7fbacked No | 60c | 557.94$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 504.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 60c | 450$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 41c | 442$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 58c | 430$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 60c | 425$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 61c | 412.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 44c | 179.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 60c | 166.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 159$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 58.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ee6abacked Yes | 43c | 46.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Yes | 43c | 35.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…bed3backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…848abacked Yes | 40c | 29.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 39c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b5…9076backed No | 62c | 20.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 68c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.