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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians46c76,766$35,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,552.191,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants53c14,943$7,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,921.4511,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed San Francisco Giants36c13,963$5,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,024.7311049.1%54 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed San Francisco Giants53c10,564$5,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,614.851,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants55c9,717$5,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,337.6810,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked San Francisco Giants55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75016753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants55c3,748$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.384,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked San Francisco Giants53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.9944749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked San Francisco Giants53c2,738$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.3347552%247 W · 228 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants55c2,144$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.793,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants47c2,036$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.974,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Cleveland Guardians46c2,003$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.8912452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants54c1,978$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.122,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed San Francisco Giants54c1,528$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82513447%63 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8255,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants52c1,077$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.831,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…1fbebacked Cleveland Guardians47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.833256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed San Francisco Giants54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Cleveland Guardians47c765.96$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.9635056%196 W · 154 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants55c706$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.628,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed San Francisco Giants55c642.88$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1757053.3%304 W · 266 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants54c622$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.886,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed San Francisco Giants55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians54c499.97$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.991,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants27c450.08$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed San Francisco Giants54c392.85$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.142,04439.5%808 W · 1,236 L-24.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians46c348.58$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.231,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants55c305.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.051,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cleveland Guardians53c257.29$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.248445.9%222 W · 262 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed San Francisco Giants55c235.04$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2723548.9%115 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed San Francisco Giants55c214.35$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8952752.2%275 W · 252 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Cleveland Guardians47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.778460.7%51 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants56c208$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.351,38650.6%702 W · 684 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed San Francisco Giants22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4428245.7%129 W · 153 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cleveland Guardians47c190.56$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6967152.5%352 W · 319 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked San Francisco Giants53c188$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410345.6%47 W · 56 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fb…c3cabacked Cleveland Guardians54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.194271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked San Francisco Giants55c181.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9928553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed San Francisco Giants55c170.45$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7548150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants53c129$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.372,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians74c122.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed San Francisco Giants54c121$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3436650.8%186 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants54c100.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0183854.7%458 W · 380 L+29.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked San Francisco Giants54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547243.1%31 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cleveland Guardians53c99.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8761646.4%286 W · 330 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked San Francisco Giants54c96.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0873650.7%373 W · 363 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed San Francisco Giants54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked San Francisco Giants54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015147.7%72 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked San Francisco Giants54c92.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9911441.2%47 W · 67 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed San Francisco Giants56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.430340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians61c87.02$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed San Francisco Giants55c81.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7319756.3%111 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Cleveland Guardians46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.26756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants55c80$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4439049%191 W · 199 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants53c73.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.992,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants18c69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.554,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Cleveland Guardians64c68.44$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6425655.1%141 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants39c63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.265,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…3728backed San Francisco Giants55c62.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a48…9e7bbacked San Francisco Giants53c61.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6719549.2%96 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed San Francisco Giants55c61.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.663751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed San Francisco Giants54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.157244.6%255 W · 317 L-35.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked San Francisco Giants54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.433649.1%165 W · 171 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1466648.2%321 W · 345 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians57c57.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.699,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed Cleveland Guardians47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.198850%44 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked San Francisco Giants54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed San Francisco Giants55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258362.7%52 W · 31 L+12.0wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+30.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd7d0…681ebacked Cleveland Guardians46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants43c42.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.271,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians47c40.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed San Francisco Giants55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210658.5%62 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked San Francisco Giants54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013453.7%72 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants56c35.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.621,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed San Francisco Giants54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.927252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed San Francisco Giants55c31.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.221252.4%111 W · 101 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants54c30.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.661,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked San Francisco Giants55c25.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131354.6%171 W · 142 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Cleveland Guardians47c23.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7660049.3%296 W · 304 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants49c22.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.185949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Cleveland Guardians56c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.685044%22 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants54c19.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.871,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Cleveland Guardians56c19.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3317548%84 W · 91 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked San Francisco Giants55c18.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.347343.8%32 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.