MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3661c5cd56378699c765d1f5b3e60621e1e580b9bcf3c3dcc32cd637cb4821d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 56c | 50,000$28,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,999.96 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 37,311$16,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,461.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 5,309$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 46c | 1,148$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.08 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 44c | 1,017$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.02 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 936.47$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Under | 46c | 588.78$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 20c | 582.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 496.94$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 44c | 450.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 389$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 25c | 375.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 340.31$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 44c | 304.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 54c | 279.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 43c | 248.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed Over | 53c | 186.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 43c | 166.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 165.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Over | 53c | 162.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Under | 44c | 139.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 138.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 37c | 129.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 37c | 121.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 121.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 62c | 97.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 43c | 91.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 45c | 80.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 57c | 60.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 52.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 72c | 47.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 59c | 43.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 28c | 42.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 72c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 58c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 44c | 36.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 58c | 27.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 64c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.