MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36081d0dbad229fa301a96c836401aaf5bd06bfe2b0e41e4dd45575b8c77dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 37c | 76,578$28,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,068.04 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 27,942$17,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,154.03 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 26,495$16,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,272.16 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 63c | 12,712$8,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,703.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 3,248$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 64c | 2,639$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.04 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 64c | 1,526$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.46 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 27c | 1,446$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 1,293$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 64c | 853$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.08 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 820$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 38c | 749.76$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 65c | 635.6$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.46 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 61c | 555$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 505$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 495$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 35c | 415.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 63c | 371.49$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 368.46$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 329.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 14c | 325$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 64c | 317.22$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 63c | 269.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 64c | 260.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 221.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 69c | 201.29$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…7518backed Under | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 181.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 63c | 158.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 137.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Under | 63c | 113.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 107.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 64c | 100.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Under | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 64c | 93.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Under | 74c | 86.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 62c | 83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 39c | 73.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…98cebacked Under | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 37c | 68.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 33c | 66.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 61c | 66.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 41c | 66.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 63c | 63.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 25c | 57.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 38c | 54.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 61c | 54.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 53c | 49.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 35c | 42.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 39c | 41.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 64c | 37.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 63c | 35.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 60c | 30.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 29.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Under | 69c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 63c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Under | 64c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 64c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…5651backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.