TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis City SCof San Jose Earthquakes, St. Louis City SC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,603 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4488…e319backed San Jose Earthquakes25c2,850$712 inLost-$712.517740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC75c1,198$899 inWon+$299.13,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed St. Louis City SC75c1,169$877 inWon+$292.1198945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis City SC75c311.87$234 inWon+$77.731,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked San Jose Earthquakes25c91.19$22 inLost-$22.3752923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked St. Louis City SC75c66.67$50 inWon+$16.675676.8%43 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed St. Louis City SC75c45$34 inWon+$11.252650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed St. Louis City SC75c28$21 inWon+$71,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…5df1backed St. Louis City SC75c20$15 inWon+$52065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked St. Louis City SC75c18.24$14 inWon+$4.562763%17 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.