Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd37424a7a10bfcc724c403f7523bbff02f4c475677640253ac4253842ecd2be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 47c | 4,388$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.78 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 3,474$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 1,586$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.51 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 1,576$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.02 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 41c | 1,509$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.96 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 1,397$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.09 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 51c | 703.62$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.85 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 656.74$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 65c | 519.25$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.21 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 434.01$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 400.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 397.3$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 71c | 363.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.06 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 340.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 66c | 297.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Under | 36c | 272.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 24c | 235.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 76c | 224.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 36c | 210.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 202.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 53c | 184.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 59c | 181.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 181.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 76c | 174$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 160.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 33c | 151.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 67c | 147.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 60c | 117.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 33c | 109.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 54c | 108.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 46c | 98.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 68c | 94.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 44c | 94.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Over | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.30per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 25c | 76.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 37c | 74.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 71c | 67.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 25c | 57.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 66c | 53.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 51c | 47.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 68c | 42.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 51c | 39.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 68c | 39.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb111…393ebacked Over | 69c | 35.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 33c | 30.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.