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Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over17c3,442$593 inLost-$593.021,00740.3%406 W · 601 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under68c2,254$1,539 inWon+$714.791,00245.4%455 W · 547 L-23.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over22c1,940$427 inLost-$426.531,90236.4%692 W · 1,210 L-9.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under75c1,544$1,151 inWon+$393.3124046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over41c1,101$448 inLost-$448.4172743.1%313 W · 414 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over14c670.43$91 inLost-$91.414042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under62c489.2$304 inWon+$185.2348745.4%221 W · 266 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over12c482.54$58 inLost-$57.96124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over41c455.27$187 inLost-$187.0587654.5%477 W · 399 L+33.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked Over4c321.16$11 inLost-$11.255547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Under71c305$215 inWon+$89.94759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under74c295$217 inWon+$77.922242.8%95 W · 127 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over13c275.38$34 inLost-$34.4353224.1%128 W · 404 L-24.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over23c183.39$42 inLost-$41.5197456.5%550 W · 424 L+71.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Over45c177.77$80 inLost-$80922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over12c166.67$20 inLost-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under59c130.99$77 inWon+$54.3244650.7%226 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under74c120$89 inWon+$31.53161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over14c114.07$16 inLost-$15.977460.8%45 W · 29 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+38.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over38c108.64$41 inLost-$4146555.9%260 W · 205 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Under76c92.11$70 inWon+$22.111747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Over26c77$20 inLost-$20.023330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Over38c74.36$28 inLost-$28.2612848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over42c70.9$30 inLost-$29.7823750.2%119 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under63c51.45$33 inWon+$18.8980750.1%404 W · 403 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4c…612bbacked Under64c50$32 inWon+$181172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Over42c47.61$20 inLost-$201478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under79c38$30 inWon+$7.981,01346.2%468 W · 545 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9786…1e9abacked Over39c35.9$14 inLost-$142931%9 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a98…dc9cbacked Under62c30.65$19 inWon+$11.654100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.