TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Under34c2,990$1,007 inLost-$1,006.871,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over66c2,789$1,850 inWon+$938.8519044.7%85 W · 105 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under14c683.98$94 inLost-$93.521,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb23c…61a7backed Over66c530.3$350 inWon+$180.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ee…3240backed Over67c447.76$300 inWon+$147.761747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under33c441.32$146 inLost-$145.6320043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under12c314.5$38 inLost-$37.5871443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under34c279.35$95 inLost-$94.9826450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under20c234.09$47 inLost-$46.6682044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over67c224.57$150 inWon+$74.1139435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under33c200$66 inLost-$6616960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under13c147.78$19 inLost-$19.211747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under34c138$47 inLost-$46.9252923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under28c76.46$22 inLost-$21.6219641.3%81 W · 115 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over77c67.6$52 inWon+$15.3196756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under23c65.44$15 inLost-$15.0546156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8b…37e0backed Over66c61.03$40 inWon+$20.75757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over72c55.2$40 inWon+$15.4629460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under33c52.96$17 inLost-$17.4997146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over67c49.85$33 inWon+$16.5273438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over66c29$19 inWon+$9.8635550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over66c22.5$15 inWon+$7.654042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over71c21.26$15 inWon+$6.1631158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over65c20$13 inWon+$74470.5%31 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.