TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58c1…ab15backed Over70c1,900$1,322 inWon+$577.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick60cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under31c1,676$516 inLost-$515.931,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under30c876.7$263 inLost-$263.0171443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over70c367.2$257 inWon+$110.1638246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under16c211.92$34 inLost-$33.9152923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over69c100$69 inWon+$314358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Over69c100$69 inWon+$315552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over69c56.35$39 inWon+$17.478760.9%53 W · 34 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over77c43$33 inWon+$9.891,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over69c34.09$24 inWon+$10.5725851.2%132 W · 126 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over69c24$17 inWon+$7.4444350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Over69c15$10 inWon+$4.659660.4%58 W · 38 L+9.4wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.