Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bd7d95f6feab758996171cbd96ce11a58fafc8be7e055733b7a45d91396285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked Under | 56c | 5,465$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 4,089$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.09 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 2,923$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 44c | 2,841$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.91 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Under | 1c | 1,871$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 50c | 1,200$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.49 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 59c | 869.72$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.73 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 39c | 861.84$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.12 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 854.58$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 19c | 778.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 27c | 607.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 468.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 19c | 450.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 16c | 285.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 285$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 43c | 199.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 44c | 189.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 51c | 153.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 62c | 128.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 117.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 110.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 51c | 110.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 37c | 77.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 16c | 72.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 63c | 72.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 43c | 71.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4be…0c16backed Under | 57c | 49.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…2c8bbacked Over | 43c | 41.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 26c | 39.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 61c | 38.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 26.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Under | 58c | 24.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 57c | 22.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb111…393ebacked Under | 48c | 21.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 61c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 60c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.