Mls · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd172dc548af7ab7a91baf026acd529310e9ceda6f29ffa528c15abd5cacc187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis City SCof St. Louis City SC, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed St. Louis City SC | 56c | 2,979$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.16 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 58c | 1,486$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.33 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…ab15backed San Jose Earthquakes | 51c | 714.59$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Jose Earthquakes | 39c | 503.29$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 58c | 380$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 51c | 338.78$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 334.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked St. Louis City SC | 29c | 207.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 187.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis City SC | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis City SC | 57c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 45c | 127.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 112$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked St. Louis City SC | 14c | 91.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis City SC | 18c | 89.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC | 14c | 81.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked St. Louis City SC | 79c | 67.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed St. Louis City SC | 33c | 65.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Jose Earthquakes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 72c | 31.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed San Jose Earthquakes | 71c | 25.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Jose Earthquakes | 70c | 24.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed San Jose Earthquakes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC: St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.