NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7336df5cc2da7253eded878b9b94b6fd92c078745b05ec8023daee0e06578a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 54c | 4,483$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 47c | 2,496$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks | 46c | 1,203$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.47 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 49c | 1,047$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Kings | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 45c | 273$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Kings | 54c | 268.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kings | 55c | 267$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bucks | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Kings | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Kings | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Bucks | 47c | 193.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 50c | 102.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Kings | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Bucks | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Bucks | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Bucks | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bucks | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Bucks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Bucks | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Kings | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 50c | 25.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…bf53backed Kings | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Bucks vs. KingsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.