TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,044,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,063,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,044,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Bucks52c874,392$451,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423,391.9610049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Kings48c400,000$192,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,00026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings49c314,883$153,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,377.381,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings49c50,378$24,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,681.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Kings49c46,665$22,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,873.762,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings50c35,605$17,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,919.783,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings47c23,462$11,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,104.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Bucks51c14,478$7,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,093.55541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings50c11,859$5,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,894.224,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Bucks50c10,159$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,111.810158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…883dbacked Kings49c9,197$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks53c7,516$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.3576746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Kings49c7,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40013260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings49c7,000$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,397.441,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Kings50c4,486$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.1223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Bucks49c4,184$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.8950653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bucks51c4,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98027546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Bucks50c3,638$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.8915549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Bucks50c2,900$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45011653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Bucks52c2,564$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.7316254.3%88 W · 74 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings42c2,510$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.252,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings49c2,328$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.442,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1912…686cbacked Bucks51c2,100$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0292147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe971…350cbacked Bucks51c2,100$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0292352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fb…2002backed Kings49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0291435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4db…309dbacked Kings49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0292157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Kings49c2,059$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.4622845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Bucks49c1,996$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.9142648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks73c1,520$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Kings50c1,424$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.212,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Kings50c1,411$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70021152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Kings4c1,378$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.12437%3 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Kings49c1,295$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.523256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings51c1,146$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.462,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Kings52c1,138$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.9244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings48c1,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4754,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Bucks52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5451753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Bucks52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.549659.4%57 W · 39 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Kings43c862.9$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37210138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Bucks49c818.37$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.3723845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Bucks50c692.44$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7911060%66 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Bucks49c681.53$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.1223250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Kings51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30691050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Kings50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Kings51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30046258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings48c541.8$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Kings49c510$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.98351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Kings50c500.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.932,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Kings5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251587%11 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Kings50c450$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff0…91fcbacked Kings49c401.31$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.24153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bucks50c400.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.31,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Kings6c366.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216343.6%71 W · 92 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Bucks50c362.22$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.112825%7 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-44.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5031…9802backed Kings30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Bucks51c318.68$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1562347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Bucks50c318$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15914054.3%76 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Bucks50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15019149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Kings48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12080744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kings50c242$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Kings52c231.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015355.6%85 W · 68 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc44…3b40backed Bucks60c219$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.851546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c22…70a0backed Kings51c212.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.561855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bucks49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5578652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Kings49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Kings49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a562backed Bucks50c200.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Kings49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011041.8%46 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Kings51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f20…eaf6backed Kings51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008543.5%37 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Kings52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Bucks52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3147048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf891…d3b6backed Bucks52c189.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.294951%25 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Bucks51c176.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9211847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Kings57c175.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc1…648abacked Kings18c173.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks49c158.21$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3951146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bucks59c151.48$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0263745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks55c147.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.013,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Bucks52c134.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6211143.2%48 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Kings49c133.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.351,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…f75cbacked Kings49c129.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.996752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks69c123.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Kings48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.952,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks50c119.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0789050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Kings51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Bucks52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3812155.4%67 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Kings52c115.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks46c113.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Kings50c111.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1457250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bucks54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8588845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Bucks50c100.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.311840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Kings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Kings49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Bucks50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5074547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…e0cabacked Bucks49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.