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NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$117,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Over47c96,570$45,336 inLost-$45,335.5916846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under53c87,433$46,340 inWon+$41,093.561,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under54c7,962$4,327 inWon+$3,635.013,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ef…8b91backed Over46c5,116$2,373 inLost-$2,373.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Under52c2,496$1,298 inWon+$1,198.0810158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Under53c2,180$1,155 inWon+$1,024.611060%66 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under53c2,132$1,130 inWon+$1,002.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over47c1,430$672 inLost-$672.213,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under55c1,153$634 inWon+$518.681,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under54c1,082$581 inWon+$500.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Over47c1,064$500 inLost-$5004645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over47c694.98$327 inLost-$326.642,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4466…9ad1backed Over47c488$229 inLost-$229.362272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.3wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+67.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under54c460.81$249 inWon+$211.9757250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under54c257.02$139 inWon+$118.231,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under54c207$112 inWon+$95.221,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over47c200$94 inLost-$941,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Under56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.573339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked Under54c137$74 inWon+$63.023360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Over47c125.01$59 inLost-$58.7515440.3%62 W · 92 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over46c80.67$37 inLost-$37.1176247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under53c75$40 inWon+$35.188845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Under52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.4621051.4%108 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over47c32.18$15 inLost-$15.1293849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under53c21.43$11 inWon+$10.072,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.