NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a199c09b5b8ea71ef7b8a6f82c651a82fc504d479919dc27a126117ac10582a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Kings | 55c | 26,424$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…db28backed Bucks | 53c | 15,787$8,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,419.69 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 47c | 15,341$7,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,191.82 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 45c | 12,930$5,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,066.17 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks | 46c | 8,966$4,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.4 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks | 54c | 6,489$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.86 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 45c | 5,006$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 46c | 4,444$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 43c | 4,044$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.84 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Kings | 47c | 2,989$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.6 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks | 53c | 2,877$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.12 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 46c | 2,818$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.26 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Bucks | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Bucks | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Bucks | 54c | 1,730$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.8 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Kings | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 53c | 1,100$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Kings | 47c | 639$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.33 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Kings | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Kings | 47c | 304.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Kings | 47c | 294.4$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 53c | 266$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 44c | 205.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Bucks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Kings | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Kings | 47c | 155.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Kings | 46c | 144.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Bucks | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Bucks | 54c | 117.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bucks | 55c | 116.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Bucks | 18c | 104.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Bucks | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kings | 46c | 95.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 47c | 83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Kings | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Kings | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 48c | 67.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bucks | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Bucks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Bucks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Kings | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Kings | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Kings | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Bucks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Kings | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Bucks | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Kings | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Kings | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…3598backed Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…d081backed Bucks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Kings | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Bucks | 56c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…83a4backed Bucks | 75c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…922abacked Bucks | 50c | 32.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Kings | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Kings | 47c | 27.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…1326backed Kings | 48c | 27.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Bucks | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Kings | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Kings | 46c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…d929backed Kings | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Kings | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Kings | 47c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Kings | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Kings | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Kings | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Bucks vs. KingsBucks won
- Bucks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.