NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390643a220d2c21f635ca9114a713f1a44df05c535b03854872f8e2882de1145

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,152 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	30,407$14,948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,459.3	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over	51c	30,000$15,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,300	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	50c	9,099$4,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,549.72	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	50c	8,893$4,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,446.72	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Over	50c	8,600$4,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,300	93	43%40 W · 53 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under	50c	5,294$2,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,647	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	3,845$1,884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,961.02	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over	51c	3,843$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	-8.6wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under	50c	2,320$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,160	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Under	50c	1,312$656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over	51c	1,116$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	3c	611.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2e…5b64backed Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	195$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.45	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f5…eb92backed Under	50c	81.08$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.54	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	50c	62.5$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.25	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	50c	55.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3cb…e003backed Over	51c	50.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…ff92backed Over	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	46c	41.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	48c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…592bbacked Over	51c	31.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	51c	30.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	50c	29.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.74	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa448…81a1backed Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed3…205bbacked Over	51c	28.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event