MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c79cd28f4585ba45b86e7ca7ef7d3ed7b5dde917a8ae92aa375766692244647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 6,912$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 2,273$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 2,220$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 1,607$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 1,006$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.2 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 978.78$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 802.21$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.8 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 623.78$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 431$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 321.72$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 302.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 268.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 265.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 219.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 209.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 209.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 190.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 181.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 158.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 125.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 105.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…1432backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 101.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 98.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 82.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 79.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 71.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 62.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f517backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 49.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 45.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 40.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 35.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.