MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54cf6b5ad6c16717b9b4dd614ac78961d7eb4d8e0223a92240214e207417eb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 53c | 7,163$3,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,789.84 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 6,658$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.89 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,000$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 713.87$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.49 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 683$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 667.7$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.87 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 509.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 6c | 452.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 55c | 318.2$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 262.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Under | 42c | 235.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 43c | 222.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 53c | 220.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 220.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 183.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…ffd8backed Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 66c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 85.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 56c | 83.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Over | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 22.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 54c | 19.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.