TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Antonio Spursof Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Suns28c27,516$7,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,712.8993148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked San Antonio Spurs43c7,226$3,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.296437.5%24 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed San Antonio Spurs62c6,253$3,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.3718140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Suns51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5507143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Suns56c3,757$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.491,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Phoenix Suns1c3,400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ada…d690backed Phoenix Suns49c2,857$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.092454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked San Antonio Spurs59c2,136$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3522753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked San Antonio Spurs49c1,895$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.232045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked San Antonio Spurs58c1,838$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.2514551%74 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Phoenix Suns3c1,294$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8231222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed San Antonio Spurs50c1,205$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.423342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed San Antonio Spurs78c1,193$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.045461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Suns44c1,132$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.8668838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Phoenix Suns58c1,067$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.635058%29 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed San Antonio Spurs54c1,050$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.242650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed San Antonio Spurs53c1,043$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.1956154.5%306 W · 255 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked San Antonio Spurs70c1,023$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.864057.5%23 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked San Antonio Spurs50c997.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.562652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed San Antonio Spurs69c935.88$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.5119548.2%94 W · 101 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked San Antonio Spurs76c826.41$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.761963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Phoenix Suns61c815.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Antonio Spurs51c801.43$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.721,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Phoenix Suns54c797.62$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.811,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Suns51c768$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1225954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed San Antonio Spurs50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…edacbacked Phoenix Suns48c620.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed San Antonio Spurs50c603.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.0335650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013e…65ddbacked Phoenix Suns45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed San Antonio Spurs50c598.78$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.398756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Phoenix Suns2c562.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.318225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a3cdbacked San Antonio Spurs65c535.88$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.881250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Phoenix Suns60c515.11$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.071,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Phoenix Suns26c475.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6736023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Antonio Spurs46c453.33$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.825651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked San Antonio Spurs69c447.95$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.895076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Suns40c446.09$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0557550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked Phoenix Suns37c398.41$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.411241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked Phoenix Suns43c380.35$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.13735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed San Antonio Spurs65c348.25$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1724937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Suns50c329.6$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed Phoenix Suns33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Phoenix Suns50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Phoenix Suns34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Phoenix Suns43c289.67$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2925840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked San Antonio Spurs64c286.39$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.298654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked San Antonio Spurs65c281.64$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.799851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Phoenix Suns36c278.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Antonio Spurs66c275.69$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.048,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Phoenix Suns22c274.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.556734.3%23 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed San Antonio Spurs53c273.2$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.41526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-48.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Phoenix Suns22c270$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.054057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Phoenix Suns28c269$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6811160.4%67 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Phoenix Suns50c266.88$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1216664.5%107 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed San Antonio Spurs73c260.91$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.111242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Phoenix Suns60c253.85$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0315250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Antonio Spurs49c251.67$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.351,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed San Antonio Spurs62c242.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.342781.5%22 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Phoenix Suns34c241.56$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827146.5%33 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked San Antonio Spurs57c230$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.924955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x223b…971cbacked Phoenix Suns33c219.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.41650%8 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Phoenix Suns50c213.76$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.493545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Phoenix Suns20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014330.8%44 W · 99 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Phoenix Suns50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x372b…cbf5backed Phoenix Suns19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed San Antonio Spurs51c198.76$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3910225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Antonio Spurs40c197.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5852150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed San Antonio Spurs50c190.46$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.231957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca0e…7248backed Phoenix Suns27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Phoenix Suns17c170.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.051258%10 W · 115 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed San Antonio Spurs50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7042853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ec…f767backed Phoenix Suns50c139.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.357751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee3…017dbacked San Antonio Spurs51c139.62$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed San Antonio Spurs55c138.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.441540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a94…a328backed Phoenix Suns45c134.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Phoenix Suns30c126.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.966732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb306…9873backed San Antonio Spurs71c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed San Antonio Spurs43c119.14$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed San Antonio Spurs54c109.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Phoenix Suns48c103.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8515543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Phoenix Suns37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.011540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Phoenix Suns48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820237.1%75 W · 127 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed San Antonio Spurs39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Phoenix Suns50c96.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.231675%12 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+95.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6be…0968backed San Antonio Spurs50c93.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Phoenix Suns35c92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed San Antonio Spurs65c91.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.191,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Suns51c90.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…5d28backed Phoenix Suns14c88.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked San Antonio Spurs51c81.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.871136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Phoenix Suns34c80.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.416636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Phoenix Suns37c77.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7110761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed San Antonio Spurs45c73.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.634136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…053abacked Phoenix Suns34c68.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.511533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked San Antonio Spurs73c65.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.719853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d42…eb8ebacked San Antonio Spurs54c61.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Suns51c60.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8610757%61 W · 46 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe011…159fbacked San Antonio Spurs58c60.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.341625%4 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed San Antonio Spurs55c60.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1918459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Antonio Spurs77c59.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.