NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Pacers Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5234285ac5bf7ccc77f746c134e5cda3304067f854b1b184bc9b18f3807e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bucks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Pacers | 43c | 10,207$4,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,767.42 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bucks | 56c | 8,050$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,517 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked Bucks | 20c | 4,164$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Pacers | 47c | 3,716$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.32 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Bucks | 33c | 3,513$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.07 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pacers | 51c | 2,200$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…659cbacked Bucks | 55c | 1,976$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Pacers | 56c | 1,550$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Pacers | 59c | 1,466$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.06 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Bucks | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Pacers | 45c | 895.83$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Pacers | 52c | 647.06$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.64 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Bucks | 53c | 442.94$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Pacers | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Pacers | 52c | 394.34$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Bucks | 58c | 333$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Bucks | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Bucks | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed Bucks | 48c | 295.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Pacers | 47c | 267.81$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…7245backed Bucks | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 150 | 34%51 W · 99 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Bucks | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Bucks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Pacers | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Pacers | 35c | 32.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.