Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d53cf76e7a990a8f4d7ae0e7d96e100b8402d45091b54a7e5602029cfcf76ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 45c | 535.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 386.83$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 360$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 325.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 241.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 165.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 52c | 151.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 144.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 116.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 113.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 38c | 112.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 50c | 101.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 98.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 56c | 75.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 75.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 75.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 44c | 72.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 71.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 66.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 59.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 58.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…d7c0backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 53.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 69c | 49.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 48.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 43.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 41.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 40.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 34.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 31.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 43c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 52c | 28.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 38c | 28.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 49c | 28.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 27.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 24.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.