Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d66db4be30a7bb553362d0d9c81565dcbf6b231db7f280662ba902e4c75c257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 955.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 70c | 594.08$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 45c | 547.81$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.02 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 544.35$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 61c | 370.33$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 64c | 320.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 204.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 29c | 183.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 167.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 166.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 15c | 147.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 77c | 143.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 138.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 121.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 48c | 118.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 113.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 108.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 47c | 104.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 19c | 103.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 50c | 100.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 100.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 89.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 44c | 85.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 85.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 82.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 82.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 82.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 18c | 75.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 51c | 69.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 66.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…a9aebacked Yes | 37c | 66.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 60.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 41c | 60.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 28c | 57.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 52.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 50.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 53c | 50.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 56c | 49.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 57c | 47.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 54c | 45.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 42.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 65c | 41.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 48c | 36.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 58c | 33.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…84c7backed No | 51c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 48c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 51c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 25.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 44c | 25.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 72c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 65c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 66c | 19.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 71c | 14.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.