Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac68a940a871f77ba3633ed34f01b1289d558b1e848a7ccbc95e507d4d35700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 78c | 1,419$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.95 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 3c | 754.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 22c | 676.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.71 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 603.16$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 565.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 531.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 489.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 20c | 488.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.37 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 59c | 397.19$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.65 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 65c | 370.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…95f9backed No | 6c | 292.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 244.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe152…586dbacked No | 5c | 225.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 9c | 221.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 211.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked No | 8c | 210.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 197.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 14c | 191.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 15c | 189.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 13c | 183$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 181.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 173.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 20c | 148.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 28c | 147.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 65c | 144.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 139.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 79c | 139.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 137.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 38c | 136.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 16c | 133.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 126.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 126.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 117.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 108.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e81…1120backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 24c | 99.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 78c | 97.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 29c | 96.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 96.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 21c | 84.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 82.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 78c | 79.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 76.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 76.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 73.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 16c | 71.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 57c | 70.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 70.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 68.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked Yes | 19c | 67.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 18c | 63.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 73c | 63.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 66c | 57.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 65c | 52.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 31c | 52.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 23c | 51.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 50.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 26c | 49.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 48.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 48.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 64c | 48.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 47.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 46.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 43c | 45.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…a9aebacked Yes | 70c | 45.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 79c | 43.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 41c | 39.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 42c | 38.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 44c | 36.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 34.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 30c | 34.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 77c | 31.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 29.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 28.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 75c | 27.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 78c | 24.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 48c | 23.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 80c | 21.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 73c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…897bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8988backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.