Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d87a2b584372a0f805e2fb0324a78b2d91cffdf0bac06efc8c78d9acaaea379

Rebuilt 53 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Burnley FCof Fulham FC, Burnley FC
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,025 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe161…4ebfbacked Fulham FC	26c	4,719$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,221.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Burnley FC	53c	3,721$1,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,762.37	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Burnley FC	74c	2,812$2,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$731.12	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Burnley FC	76c	2,632$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.58	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	-10.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Fulham FC	25c	2,064$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Fulham FC	51c	1,724$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.95	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Fulham FC	26c	1,606$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.57	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Burnley FC	77c	1,162$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.16	200	54.5%109 W · 91 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Fulham FC	26c	1,150$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Fulham FC	24c	1,071$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Burnley FC	68c	1,000$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Burnley FC	76c	921.05$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.05	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Fulham FC	27c	740.25$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Fulham FC	23c	600$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	294	27.9%82 W · 212 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Burnley FC	53c	530.75$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.62	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Fulham FC	26c	528$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.23	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Fulham FC	23c	360.59$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.94	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fulham FC	30c	360.01$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Fulham FC	25c	358.01$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Burnley FC	76c	200$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	71cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Burnley FC	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Fulham FC	33c	139.16$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.24	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Burnley FC	77c	95.18$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.89	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Fulham FC	24c	93.19$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…d234backed Fulham FC	26c	89.15$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Fulham FC	23c	87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d69…beecbacked Fulham FC	26c	58.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Burnley FC	77c	54$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8450…b5a9backed Fulham FC	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Burnley FC	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Fulham FC	26c	44.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Burnley FC	74c	34.04$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Burnley FC	75c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.25	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Burnley FC	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	305	54.8%167 W · 138 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Burnley FC	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	145	60%87 W · 58 L	+10.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Burnley FC	75c	24.6$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.15	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Burnley FC	76c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.66	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)this page
Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event