Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db68389519376349c25b967bbff44260bba8bc1241554748c21c93ddb913026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 585.59$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 450.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 441.73$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 346.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 267.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 263.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 245.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 6c | 207.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 151.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 135.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 116.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 40c | 103.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 28c | 89.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 89.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 50c | 89.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 89.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 31c | 87.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 39c | 87.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 83.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 76.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 69.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 31c | 63.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 61.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 60.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…0307backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 56.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 45c | 52.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 49.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 44.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 44.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 44.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 44.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 33c | 40.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 58c | 39.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 39.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 38.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 35.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 36c | 35.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 70c | 34.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 32.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 31.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 64c | 29.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 50c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…8b2ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 73c | 26.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 25.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…0468backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 67c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 53c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 77c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 17.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 70c | 16.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.