Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ccc9cfb29d9ad2168b6192fba779190820615f23a5f0ba88de16874e19c140e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,487$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 429.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 245.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 32c | 234.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 233.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 71c | 211.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 34c | 180.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 50c | 166.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…0203backed Yes | 47c | 151.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 141.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 59c | 132.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 128.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 107.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 37c | 107.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 35c | 103.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 100.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 66c | 92.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 91.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…5226backed Yes | 53c | 80.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 65c | 78.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 76.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 71c | 71.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 56c | 67.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 59.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 59.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 56.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 39c | 56.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 64c | 56.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 53c | 52.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 63c | 47.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 36c | 42.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 38.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 36.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 36.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 68c | 35.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 70c | 33.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 32.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 31.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…140cbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 48c | 29.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 66c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 48c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 67c | 24.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 67c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 47c | 23.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…8b2ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 71c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 69c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 67c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…65a3backed No | 68c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.