Weather · resolved market
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1bac16c7cc014a5d803d1ab2325a50a409fd824f0bc247f0f5ba9afe64afc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc825…361fbacked Yes | 1c | 55,629$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…27a6backed Yes | 5c | 6,773$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 3c | 6,625$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 6,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.57 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fed…981cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,040$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…5df5backed Yes | 3c | 5,885$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 1c | 3,263$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…dd3abacked Yes | 8c | 3,027$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 12c | 2,129$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,079$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…84c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,920$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,804$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…cbe7backed Yes | 4c | 1,360$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 9c | 1,289$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,174$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…61e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,090$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Yes | 9c | 1,064$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…9a53backed Yes | 8c | 994.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 957.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 950$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 839.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…c696backed Yes | 10c | 819.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 677.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 46c | 669.62$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…0085backed Yes | 10c | 610.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 602.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 530$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 525.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…6788backed Yes | 13c | 483.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 483.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 7c | 482$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…43a1backed Yes | 5c | 472.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 4c | 454.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…e6a4backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 7c | 432$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…f7c8backed Yes | 6c | 419.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 5c | 413.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 10c | 280$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 12c | 266.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Yes | 9c | 233.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked Yes | 5c | 200.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 7c | 168.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…86e8backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed Yes | 8c | 148.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.