MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e29c4af27d3b6c44295016e05c7500b58fab612be8ce122502147b176829233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 45c | 7,175$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.86 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed No | 55c | 5,869$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.08 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 1,440$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.92 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 57c | 1,407$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.1 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 43c | 1,203$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.1 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 45c | 1,082$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.77 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 55c | 919$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.55 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 892.99$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.85 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 55c | 460$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 456.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked No | 56c | 364$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 55c | 360$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 45c | 226.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed No | 55c | 220.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked No | 75c | 58.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 45.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 54c | 41.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked No | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.