MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6e9210fe8f7c496a6bb2d0c8375558ffaf13cc087e18de96341a22f113187a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed Over | 47c | 11,932$5,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,588.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 54c | 4,990$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.45 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 2,148$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 1,681$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.88 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 45c | 1,256$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,135$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.46 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 708.19$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.83 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 701.1$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 683$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 55c | 493.73$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 54c | 300$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.24 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 299$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 270.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 46c | 222.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 218.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 203.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 198.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 23c | 161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 147$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Under | 55c | 95.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 94.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 92.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 78.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 64c | 55.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 54c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 45c | 49.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 35.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 56c | 34.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 46c | 30.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 54c | 23.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 46c | 22.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.