MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1170d1852644d37f36774777fa0cd4e10f19f227910a8794f3590a30fbc4d93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,769$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 1,069$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.58 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 813.22$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 462.36$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 429.89$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 39c | 346.15$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 228.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 223.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 65c | 173.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 43c | 157.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Over | 9c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 58c | 110.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 58c | 104.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 23c | 103.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 99.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 89.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Over | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 46c | 73.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 58c | 57.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 58c | 57.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 54.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 41c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 59c | 49.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 40.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…1063backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 53c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Under | 44c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 29.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 46c | 26.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 56c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 77c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.