MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18235b07b2cbb12ac4d3eae0a2be720feecc5a67accd67cd90cb387bb9d22df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 80,549$43,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,496.62 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 80,000$36,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,200 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 8,519$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600.3 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 4,619$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 45c | 3,727$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.98 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 1,966$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.06 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 1,123$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.38 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 911$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 605$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 556.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.9 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 45c | 491.38$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.26 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 55c | 409.29$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 46c | 398$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 46c | 391.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.3 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 45c | 299$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 244.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 64c | 226.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 46c | 193.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 42c | 189.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…6416backed Over | 54c | 184.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 155.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 142$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 55c | 138$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 136.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 123.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 55c | 93.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 44c | 73.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 55c | 67.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 65.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 55.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 46c | 53.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 53.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 46c | 51.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 55c | 39.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Over | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 40c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed Over | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.