Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK vs. Universitatea Craiova CS end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3147ce00e672b62617c91fb8f8a5c0dd839d6891c13ce1225691fd5fd162c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 3c | 2,565$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 7c | 1,800$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Yes | 19c | 1,012$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 689.96$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.39 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 57c | 618$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.89 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 596$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 55c | 519$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 438.94$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 34c | 344.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 44c | 332$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 70c | 307$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.77 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked No | 64c | 233$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 20c | 218.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes | 20c | 191$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 20c | 162$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 33c | 102.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 66c | 94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 38c | 86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK vs. Universitatea Craiova CS end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.