Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4f772f087458608adc51ca681130572db367c708330c3bd7722a314022159e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes | 30c | 49,689$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…2093backed Yes | 1c | 5,720$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…2835backed Yes | 21c | 1,050$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 80c | 968.66$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.73 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 79c | 674.95$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…73d5backed Yes | 12c | 446.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 19c | 396.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 345.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 54c | 278.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…7359backed No | 80c | 229.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Yes | 18c | 210.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…a592backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5b0bbacked No | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 150.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…59bebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…becebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 78c | 117.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 21c | 113.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…a3a1backed Yes | 23c | 110.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…11ecbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…e861backed No | 80c | 77.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…56debacked Yes | 24c | 66.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…50dcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed No | 78c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a2c7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…09c8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…b1f8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85c…e1f2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…5c14backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd332…f85dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…29e8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-01?this page
- Will Chelsea vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.