TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$611,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,488 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex52c43,680$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora48c30,313$14,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,713.7416147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Yandex44c24,404$10,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,635.3355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Yandex49c20,525$10,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,095.4711854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora51c14,449$7,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,008.2832854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Yandex47c12,138$5,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,695.5571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Aurora53c10,612$5,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,970.9312156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Aurora52c10,573$5,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,094.886852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Yandex72c9,714$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.475757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex51c8,143$4,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,15453451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora52c8,142$4,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,922.7251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Aurora48c7,731$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.419153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Aurora56c7,349$4,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.6533041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora52c7,312$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.7722643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora56c6,110$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.4396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Aurora47c5,916$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,135.375431.5%17 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora35c5,088$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.136851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Aurora49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5509657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Team Yandex52c4,831$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.954932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Yandex39c4,137$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.21,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora49c3,939$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.1389440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora53c3,934$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.221,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Aurora61c3,907$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.6518661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Aurora54c3,906$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.368749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora59c3,857$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.4318362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Yandex53c3,763$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.2511346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Yandex54c3,727$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora54c3,661$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.022,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Aurora54c2,743$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.5677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora50c2,700$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora31c2,558$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.3738855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Yandex30c2,483$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Yandex46c2,439$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.7931545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora50c2,400$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora56c2,400$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.4318156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Yandex48c2,264$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.0216050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora53c2,260$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.2579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Team Yandex45c2,182$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9916637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Aurora47c2,130$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.895750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora45c2,099$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.782,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Yandex10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20051049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Aurora53c1,938$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.4232652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2199…f619backed Aurora54c1,900$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8652744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora51c1,784$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.211,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora50c1,768$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.414443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Aurora48c1,642$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.756043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Yandex47c1,553$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.7938049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex53c1,536$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora53c1,500$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.1158744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Aurora30c1,429$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.4922647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Yandex39c1,268$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.1277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora56c1,259$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.3760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Team Yandex43c1,252$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.0110735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Yandex45c1,196$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.1522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex35c1,193$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Yandex51c1,124$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57014538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Aurora73c1,105$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.9530356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex49c1,098$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.5860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Yandex46c1,051$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.4152243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Yandex48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Team Yandex47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4705259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53013455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked Aurora52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team Yandex52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52022727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Team Yandex52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Aurora57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43032951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Yandex10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Team Yandex15c996.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Aurora61c994.3$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9725457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora49c980.78$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.221350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3921346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Yandex59c972.38$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.7841655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora53c951.97$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.5160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Yandex3c940$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2816821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Yandex39c912.11$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.0620767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Team Yandex64c891.03$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.861163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Team Yandex40c874.23$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35311757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Aurora59c853.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.477342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Aurora48c830.3$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.7625639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815a…2540backed Aurora60c829.27$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.711758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Aurora56c799.87$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.9438653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Aurora78c763.15$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.733764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…3becbacked Aurora48c743.75$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.751181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+56.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked Team Yandex45c718.53$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.022556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora40c703.85$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3735758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Team Yandex3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Aurora57c654.67$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.283956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Team Yandex44c653.51$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2904544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Aurora55c648.66$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.0453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Team Yandex28c636.36$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.946349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Aurora49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.244440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex50c597.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora60c590.8$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4923957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Yandex6c580$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.76132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Aurora59c573.45$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1134561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb183…0badbacked Aurora68c557.52$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Team Yandex42c548.68$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2304533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cab…8228backed Aurora44c545.43$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+54.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac06…f93dbacked Aurora61c545$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.12263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.