TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Aurora, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,583 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex50c20,469$10,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,141.5154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed Team Yandex59c15,771$9,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,397.292450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora8c11,489$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.2371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Yandex73c11,386$8,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.6711854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora42c11,099$4,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,661.6332854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora44c10,380$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.3216147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora49c10,004$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,902.1436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex61c9,163$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Aurora23c8,036$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.8933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Aurora50c5,854$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92713045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Yandex68c5,429$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.8296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Aurora48c5,230$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.984932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora28c5,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora7c4,344$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e32…6e95backed Aurora1c3,900$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.14717%8 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora32c3,895$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.322643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Aurora23c3,196$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora33c3,013$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.162,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Yandex56c2,584$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.8720156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora30c2,553$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.8941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex53c2,084$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.311,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Yandex65c2,039$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.4812156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Aurora51c1,954$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.9511346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Team Yandex56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.719158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Aurora20c1,640$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32322727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora21c1,547$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32823050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora46c1,538$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.1613455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora1c1,477$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Yandex68c1,470$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.1318661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora50c1,255$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.3260542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Yandex76c1,096$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9746649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.66132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked Team Yandex57c987.22$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.53060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed Aurora21c956.23$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.374841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Aurora33c875.81$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.961533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Aurora2c829.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.616821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Aurora43c778.63$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3344533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora33c774.42$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbb…87c3backed Aurora3c750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora15c732.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Team Yandex56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3085259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Aurora38c685.31$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26011648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex71c683.38$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0155251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora43c665.98$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3756542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Aurora7c663.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.765625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Aurora29c626.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3131835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Yandex72c616.73$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.631,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc093…de0ebacked Aurora26c545.31$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.783438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora12c500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5192056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Aurora42c499.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.994540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Yandex55c468.63$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6314251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Team Yandex57c456.14$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.1416440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora22c454.5$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10272035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Yandex70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5712948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Aurora51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20413138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora36c391.58$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4460552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Yandex65c382.93$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora15c378.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6333645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Yandex48c358.02$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.179153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Yandex56c356.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Team Yandex55c352.18$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.489657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Aurora3c350$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Aurora5c350$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.537018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora32c342.21$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora33c312.84$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.182,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Aurora35c305.84$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.66145.9%28 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Team Yandex67c300.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2111757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10497142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Team Yandex56c299.61$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.887252.8%38 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Team Yandex50c289.86$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.938544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9887…fe5cbacked Aurora35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010453.8%56 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…642dbacked Aurora6c274.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166224.2%15 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Aurora11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Aurora44c271$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.291,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora12c264.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7338049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed Aurora12c261.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5510134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora42c242.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Team Yandex51c238.63$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5115131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Yandex67c236.34$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Aurora26c228.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9af1…df2cbacked Aurora23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Aurora26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5224137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Yandex50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10034154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Aurora11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6740745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Yandex57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Team Yandex51c197.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0615151%77 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Team Yandex56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.578258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Yandex57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4423459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex59c169.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4629245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora19c166.41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7257654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora51c160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed Aurora13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208229.3%24 W · 58 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbf0…b959backed Aurora21c153.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c1…d9febacked Team Yandex50c139.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.836553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed Aurora8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Yandex57c122.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8186451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Aurora25c116.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.235829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Aurora43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.