Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0660b8563c0ca5f21fc593ec986df303d1490a16584899fe66ba588e3d596b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a23…4875backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…f477backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 51c | 5,012$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.12 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 49c | 1,811$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.34 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,285$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.5 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e0…ac15backed Over | 49c | 520$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed Under | 51c | 520$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…c2c6backed Under | 52c | 510$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Over | 48c | 510$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 50c | 509.62$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked Over | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…0efcbacked Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Over | 49c | 415$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Under | 51c | 415$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…3500backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Under | 35c | 190.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…a779backed Under | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed Over | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 151.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Under | 45c | 139.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 79c | 137$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 51c | 134.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 37c | 102.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…59b1backed Over | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 50c | 64.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…4939backed Over | 61c | 38.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Over | 54c | 34.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Over | 70c | 29.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)Team Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.