TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs Akimbo Esports (BO3) - CCT North America Series #4 Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Akimbo Esportsof FarmVille, Akimbo Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54ac…47e6backed FarmVille1c12,852$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1867372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf40f…8dcfbacked Akimbo Esports56c5,703$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.524858.3%28 W · 20 L+10.2wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+65.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Akimbo Esports42c3,505$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.191,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa065…b825backed FarmVille72c3,370$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.36520%1 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.49per pick69cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed FarmVille44c3,014$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.4823072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Akimbo Esports32c2,667$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.1149646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Akimbo Esports44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Akimbo Esports29c2,140$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.091,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Akimbo Esports32c2,125$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.611,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked FarmVille31c2,113$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.6763038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FarmVille28c2,040$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.722,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe2…0d54backed FarmVille58c2,009$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.936758.2%39 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…8bf7backed FarmVille1c1,881$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-75.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FarmVille49c1,535$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.445,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Akimbo Esports24c1,513$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.374,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed FarmVille30c1,319$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7624457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed FarmVille9c1,268$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.944244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FarmVille38c1,191$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.232,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked FarmVille69c1,114$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked FarmVille70c1,107$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.9522534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FarmVille56c966.24$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.437,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Akimbo Esports34c906.87$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2357641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked FarmVille74c905.64$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.36540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FarmVille65c825.69$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.316,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Akimbo Esports42c760.71$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.7455950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed FarmVille7c737.42$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.627152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed FarmVille63c684.4$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.939852%51 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FarmVille71c631.93$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.43,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Akimbo Esports28c600$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43294645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked FarmVille70c579.3$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.9826037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FarmVille72c560.99$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.321,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked FarmVille71c535.27$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.1438942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Akimbo Esports43c530.29$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.225,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Akimbo Esports30c512.01$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.982,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8087backed Akimbo Esports75c499.82$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.182722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-64%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked Akimbo Esports34c437.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.932152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Akimbo Esports42c424.47$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.191,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…5901backed FarmVille76c424.06$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.411883.3%15 W · 3 L+5.5wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+98.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Akimbo Esports26c400$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.742,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed FarmVille56c384.22$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.178267.1%55 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked FarmVille56c360.12$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.662080%16 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Akimbo Esports43c345.08$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.76456.3%36 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Akimbo Esports38c336.73$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.111,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8068…98f5backed Akimbo Esports20c333.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed FarmVille56c311.55$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.373256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…b3debacked Akimbo Esports31c307.87$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2123951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed FarmVille63c306.34$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.291,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed FarmVille37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126142.6%26 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed FarmVille37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11233241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf804…4c3dbacked FarmVille49c271.41$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.991369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5b…aea3backed Akimbo Esports26c249.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked FarmVille37c231.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.385735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed FarmVille37c224$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7218545.4%84 W · 101 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Akimbo Esports18c213$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.639440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x056b…e7a4backed Akimbo Esports33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9927…f135backed FarmVille57c198.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.575377.4%41 W · 12 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed FarmVille57c196.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f61…67ebbacked Akimbo Esports26c181.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.653135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed FarmVille61c180.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.279951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Akimbo Esports44c166.91$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4761154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed FarmVille7c162.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3530254.3%164 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FarmVille58c152.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5863541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed FarmVille37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5629347.8%140 W · 153 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb997…faacbacked FarmVille48c143.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7920553.2%109 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed FarmVille35c137.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5139946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed FarmVille74c133.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.445863.8%37 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c0…f3e8backed Akimbo Esports37c128.79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.194100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Akimbo Esports40c127.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2647260%283 W · 189 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Akimbo Esports32c120$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.911,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Akimbo Esports28c118.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.812,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed FarmVille37c112$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3636845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed FarmVille37c112$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3641436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed FarmVille37c112$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3645240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed FarmVille37c112$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3657935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed FarmVille56c106.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3717759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed FarmVille59c105.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.69852%51 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…67d0backed FarmVille65c105.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked FarmVille59c99.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.521,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee4…471fbacked Akimbo Esports43c98.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0135752.9%189 W · 168 L+22.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Akimbo Esports46c96.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2518541.6%77 W · 108 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a5…64fabacked FarmVille17c94.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked FarmVille69c92.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7933060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FarmVille72c89.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.764,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Akimbo Esports30c87.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3127015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Akimbo Esports30c87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.082,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed FarmVille61c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0723333%77 W · 156 L-22.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed FarmVille48c84.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4716829.2%49 W · 119 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Akimbo Esports45c83.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8552951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Akimbo Esports36c80.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.642,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed FarmVille57c76.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.798535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed FarmVille39c76.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed FarmVille52c74.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked FarmVille58c73.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8818341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Akimbo Esports42c71.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3912469.4%86 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed FarmVille34c71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3321739.2%85 W · 132 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked FarmVille65c63.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked FarmVille28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2798…a9c7backed Akimbo Esports32c49.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.385949.2%29 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x212e…791abacked Akimbo Esports52c48.8$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.292755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Akimbo Esports43c47.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4547856.7%271 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.