Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe1f8580c4425f29a2bf9309bd04a24324a08b1172c659c14a9d7dbb4f2b056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 24c | 647.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 553.43$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes | 21c | 544.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 240.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 231.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 227.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 192.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 28c | 175.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 164.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 153.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked Yes | 16c | 138.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 129.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 121.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…582bbacked Yes | 17c | 114.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…1341backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 101.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 16c | 98.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 23c | 95.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 83.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 75.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 22c | 73.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 71.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes | 28c | 71.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 29c | 69.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 63.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 62.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 26c | 61.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 60.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 58.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 71c | 56.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked Yes | 27c | 53.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked Yes | 26c | 50.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 48.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…a790backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 38.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 74c | 37.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4746backed No | 74c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 33.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 78c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 75c | 31.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 74c | 31.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…8d79backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.