Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eac30a450e86a30f1e5167537f9458b7301a295f50c259494bcc2f89aedb442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 6c | 1,402$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 5c | 974.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 879.32$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.22 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…c2d1backed Yes | 69c | 719.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 79c | 520.73$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 517.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 4c | 387.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 30c | 374.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 64c | 363.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 362.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 329.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 15c | 299.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.69 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 263.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 256.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 238.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 224.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.13 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 222.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 211.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 193.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 186.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 175.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 79c | 160.29$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 10c | 157.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 156.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 155.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 21c | 155.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 69c | 153.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 17c | 153$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 147.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 145.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 16c | 144.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 62c | 135.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 41c | 127$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 12c | 125.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 123.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 42c | 120.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 109.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 102.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 62c | 88.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 71c | 84.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 70.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 70.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 64.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 19c | 57.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 28c | 48.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 46.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 44.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 37c | 41.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 32c | 35.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 33.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…90d8backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 56c | 22.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 64c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.