MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe9b4a18d2b692d462da58ee9755f79d64dfabfab8dbd5c76741bfc82248ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 2,531$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 2,214$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.03 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,946$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 1,735$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 1,056$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 725.15$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 516$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 11c | 434.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 246.09$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…8e93backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 235.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 11c | 159.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 142.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 115.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 74.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 48.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 36.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 34.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 33.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 33.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 26.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 15.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.